|Climate Change : What
is Wrong with the IPCC?
international discussion about climate change, which is now going on
for almost twenty years, the
IPCC has played a questionable role. From its inception, is has almost exclusively focused on the AGW hypothesis,
while systematically ignoring alternative hypotheses.
for Policy Makers
main points of criticism of the IPCC include:
advent of climate alarmism, fuelled by statements of many prominent
politicians and the media, has no scientific justification. Many
catastrophic consequences of climate change, such as floods and extreme
weather events, have been predicted, which are not based on scientific
knowledge. Especially the European governments have opted for a climate
policy which is completely unrealistic and results in a massive waste
of scarce resources.
hypothesis that an increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will
lead to a rise in temperature has not been proven and is even at odds
with the observations.
temperature measurements show that the earth has warmed a few tenths of
a degree Celsius between 1979 and 1998. It is not likely that this is
caused by mankind.
is still a lack of scientific understanding, required to model all
assumed radiative forcings. The most important one, for which there are
not sufficient quantitative data to date, is the variable impact of
models, which are being used to achieve a better understanding of the
climate system, are not suited to serve as basis for predictions. This
is, inter alia, related to the stochastic nature of climate.
global climate is very much determined by extra-terrestrial phenomena,
of which the fluctuation of sun activity is the most important.
there still be global warming in the future, for which there are only
model-based indications, then mankind will not be able to do something
about it. Moreover, also according the IPCC, a modest additional
warming (e.g., of 2 degrees Celsius) will on balance be beneficial for
IPCC has ignored the climate projections of astrophysicists, which
suggest global cooling.
one should not discount the possibility that the average global
temperature will fall considerably in the near future. This might have
harmful implications, as opposed to a modest rise of temperatures,
which on balance will have positive effects.
is the Right Economic Approach to Global Warming?
Debate held Apr 15, 2008
W.H. Parry, Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future;
Richard Sandor, Chairman
and CEO, Chicago Climate Exchange;
Socolow, Professor, Princeton University.
Christine Todd Whitman,
President, Whitman Strategy Group.
Open Letter to the
Dear Mr. Secretary-General,
Re: UN climate conference taking the World in entirely the wrong
It is not possible to stop climate change, a natural phenomenon that
has affected humanity through the ages. Geological, archaeological,
oral and written histories all attest to the dramatic challenges posed
to past societies from unanticipated changes in temperature,
precipitation, winds and other climatic variables. We therefore need to
equip nations to become resilient to the full range of these natural
phenomena by promoting economic growth and wealth generation.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
issued increasingly alarming conclusions about the climatic influences
of human-produced carbon dioxide (CO2), a non-polluting gas that is
essential to plant photosynthesis. While we understand the evidence
that has led them to view CO2 emissions as harmful, the IPCC’s
conclusions are quite inadequate as justification for implementing
policies that will markedly diminish future prosperity. In particular,
it is not established that it is possible to significantly alter global
climate through cuts in human greenhouse gas emissions. On top of
which, because attempts to cut emissions will slow development, the
current UN approach of CO2 reduction is likely to increase human
suffering from future climate change rather than to decrease it.
The IPCC Summaries for Policy Makers are the most widely read IPCC
reports amongst politicians and non-scientists and are the basis for
most climate change policy formulation. Yet these Summaries are
prepared by a relatively small core writing team with the final drafts
approved line-by-line by government representatives. The great majority
of IPCC contributors and reviewers, and the tens of thousands of other
scientists who are qualified to comment on these matters, are not
involved in the preparation of these documents. The Summaries therefore
cannot properly be represented as a consensus view among experts.
Contrary to the impression left by the IPCC Summary reports:
In stark contrast to the often repeated
assertion that the science of climate change is ‘settled’, significant
new peer-reviewed research has cast even more doubt on the hypothesis
of dangerous human-caused global warming. But because IPCC working
groups were generally instructed to consider work published only
through May 2005, these important findings are not included in their
reports; i.e., the IPCC assessment reports are already materially
- Recent observations of phenomena
such as glacial retreats, sea-level rise and the migration of
temperature-sensitive species are not evidence for abnormal climate
change, for none of these changes has been shown to lie outside the
bounds of known natural variability.
- The average rate of warming of 0.1
- 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade recorded by satellites during the late
20th century falls within known natural rates of warming and cooling
over the last 10,000 years.
- Leading scientists, including some
senior IPCC representatives, acknowledge that today’s computer models
cannot predict climate. Consistent with this, and despite computer
projections of temperature rises, there has been no net global warming
since 1998. That the current temperature plateau follows a late 20th
century period of warming is consistent with the continuation today of
natural multi-decadal or millennial climate cycling.
The UN climate conference in Bali has been planned to take the world
along a path of severe CO2 restrictions, ignoring the lessons apparent
from the failure of the Kyoto Protocol, the chaotic nature of the
European CO2 trading market, and the ineffectiveness of other costly
initiatives to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Balanced cost/benefit
analyses provide no support for the introduction of global measures to
cap and reduce energy consumption for the purpose of restricting CO2
emissions. Furthermore, it is irrational to apply the 'precautionary
principle' because many scientists recognize that both climatic
coolings and warmings are realistic possibilities over the medium-term
The current UN focus on "fighting climate change", as illustrated in
the November 27th UN Development Programme's Human Development Report,
is distracting governments from adapting to the threat of inevitable
natural climate changes, whatever forms they may take. National and
international planning for such changes is needed, with a focus on
helping our most vulnerable citizens adapt to conditions that lie
ahead. Attempts to prevent global climate change from occurring are
ultimately futile, and constitute a tragic misallocation of resources
that would be better spent on humanity’s real and pressing problems.
De open letter was signed by :
Don Aitkin, Ph.D., Professor, social scientist, retired Vice-Chancellor
and President, University of Canberra, Australia
Syun-Ichi Akasofu, Ph.D., Professor of Physics, Emeritus and Founding
Director, International Arctic Research Center of the University of
Alaska Fairbanks, U.S.
William J.R. Alexander, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Civil and
Biosystems Engineering, University of Pretoria, South Africa; Member,
UN Scientific and Technical Committee on Natural Disasters, 1994-2000
Bjarne Andresen, Ph.D., physicist, Professor, The Niels Bohr Institute,
University of Copenhagen, Denmark
Geoff L. Austin, Ph.D., FNZIP, FRSNZ, Professor, Dept. of Physics,
University of Auckland, New Zealand
Timothy F. Ball, Ph.D., environmental consultant, former climatology
professor, University of Winnipeg, Canada
Ernst-Georg Beck, Dipl. Biol., Biologist, Merian-Schule Freiburg,
Sonja A. Boehmer-Christiansen, Ph.D., Reader, Dept. of Geography, Hull
University, UK; Editor, Energy & Environment journal
Chris C. Borel, Ph.D., remote sensing scientist, U.S.
Reid A. Bryson, Ph.D. D.Sc. D.Engr., UNEP Global 500 Laureate; Senior
Scientist, Center for Climatic Research; Emeritus Professor of
Meteorology, of Geography, and of Environmental Studies, University of
Dan Carruthers, M.Sc., wildlife biology consultant specializing in
animal ecology in Arctic and Subarctic regions, Alberta, Canada
Robert M. Carter, Ph.D., Professor, Marine Geophysical Laboratory,
James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
Ian D. Clark, Ph.D., Professor, isotope hydrogeology and
paleoclimatology, Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa, Canada
Richard S. Courtney, Ph.D., climate and atmospheric science consultant,
IPCC expert reviewer, U.K.
Willem de Lange, Ph.D., Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, School of
Science and Engineering, Waikato University, New Zealand
David Deming, Ph.D. (Geophysics), Associate Professor, College of Arts
and Sciences, University of Oklahoma, U.S.
Freeman J. Dyson, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor of Physics, Institute for
Advanced Studies, Princeton, N.J., U.S.
Don J. Easterbrook, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor of Geology, Western
Washington University, U.S.
Lance Endersbee, Emeritus Professor, former Dean of Engineering and
Pro-Vice Chancellor of Monasy University, Australia
Hans Erren, Doctorandus, geophysicist and climate specialist, Sittard,
Robert H. Essenhigh, Ph.D., E.G. Bailey Professor of Energy Conversion,
Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, The Ohio State University, U.S.
Christopher Essex, Ph.D., Professor of Applied Mathematics and
Associate Director of the Program in Theoretical Physics, University of
Western Ontario, Canada
David Evans, Ph.D., mathematician, carbon accountant, computer and
electrical engineer and head of 'Science Speak', Australia
William Evans, Ph.D., Editor, American Midland Naturalist; Dept. of
Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, U.S.
Stewart Franks, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Hydroclimatologist,
University of Newcastle, Australia
R. W. Gauldie, Ph.D., Research Professor, Hawaii Institute of
Geophysics and Planetology, School of Ocean Earth Sciences and
Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa
Lee C. Gerhard, Ph.D., Senior Scientist Emeritus, University of Kansas;
former director and state geologist, Kansas Geological Survey, U.S.
Gerhard Gerlich, Professor for Mathematical and Theoretical Physics,
Institut für Mathematische Physik der TU Braunschweig, Germany
Albrecht Glatzle, Ph.D., sc.agr., Agro-Biologist and Gerente ejecutivo,
Fred Goldberg, Ph.D., Adj. Professor, Royal Institute of Technology,
Mechanical Engineering, Stockholm, Sweden
Vincent Gray, Ph.D., expert reviewer for the IPCC and author of The
Greenhouse Delusion: A Critique of 'Climate Change 2001', Wellington,
William M. Gray, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Atmospheric Science,
Colorado State University and Head of the Tropical Meteorology Project,
Howard Hayden, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of
Louis Hissink M.Sc. M.A.I.G., Editor AIG News and Consulting Geologist,
Perth, Western Australia
Craig D. Idso, Ph.D., Chairman, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide
and Global Change, Arizona, U.S.
Sherwood B. Idso, Ph.D., President, Center for the Study of Carbon
Dioxide and Global Change, AZ, USA
Andrei Illarionov, Ph.D., Senior Fellow, Center for Global Liberty and
Prosperity, U.S.; founder and director of the Institute of Economic
Zbigniew Jaworowski, Ph.D., physicist, Chairman - Scientific Council of
Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, Warsaw, Poland
Jon Jenkins, Ph.D., MD, computer modelling - virology, Sydney, NSW,
Wibjorn Karlen, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor, Dept. of Physical Geography
and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden
Olavi Käärner, Ph.D., Research Associate, Dept. of
Atmospheric Physics, Institute of Astrophysics and Atmospheric Physics,
Joel M. Kauffman, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor of Chemistry, University of
the Sciences in Philadelphia, U.S.
David Kear, Ph.D., FRSNZ, CMG, geologist, former Director-General of NZ
Dept. of Scientific & Industrial Research, New Zealand
Madhav Khandekar, Ph.D., former Research Scientist Environment Canada;
Editor "Climate Research” (03-05); Editorial Board Member "Natural
Hazards, IPCC Expert Reviewer 2007
William Kininmonth M.Sc., M.Admin., former head of Australia’’s
National Climate Centre and a consultant to the World Meteorological
organization’’s Commission for Climatology
Jan J.H. Kop, M.Sc. Ceng FICE (Civil Engineer Fellow of the Institution
of Civil Engineers), Emeritus Professor of Public Health Engineering,
Technical University Delft, The Netherlands
Professor R.W.J. Kouffeld, Emeritus Professor, Energy Conversion, Delft
University of Technology, The Netherlands
Salomon Kroonenberg, Ph.D., Professor, Dept. of Geotechnology, Delft
University of Technology, The Netherlands
Hans H.J. Labohm, Ph.D., economist, former advisor to the executive
board, Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands Institute of
International Relations), The Netherlands
The Rt. Hon. Lord Lawson of Blaby, economist; Chairman of the Central
Europe Trust; former Chancellor of the Exchequer, U.K.
Douglas Leahey, Ph.D., meteorologist and air-quality consultant,
David R. Legates, Ph.D., Director, Center for Climatic Research,
University of Delaware, U.S.
Marcel Leroux, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus of Climatology, University of
Lyon, France; former director of Laboratory of Climatology, Risks and
Bryan Leyland, International Climate Science Coalition, consultant -
power engineer, Auckland, New Zealand
William Lindqvist, Ph.D., consulting geologist and company director,
Tiburon, California, U.S.
Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D., Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology,
Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, U.S.
A.J. (Tom) van Loon, Ph.D., Professor of Geology (Quaternary Geology),
Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland; former President of the
European Association of Science Editors
Anthony R. Lupo, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science,
Dept. of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Science, University of
Richard Mackey, Ph.D., Statistician, Australia
Horst Malberg, PhD, Professor for Meteorology and Climatology, Institut
für Meteorologie, Berlin, Germany
John Maunder, Ph.D., Climatologist, former President of the Commission
for Climatology of the World Meteorological Organization (89-97), New
Alister McFarquhar, Ph.D., international economist, Downing College,
Ross McKitrick, PhD, Associate Professor, Dept. of Economics,
University of Guelph, Canada
John McLean, Climate Data Analyst, computer scientist, Melbourne,
Owen McShane, B. Arch., Master of City and Regional Planning (UC
Berkeley), economist and policy analyst, joint founder of the
International Climate Science Coalition, Director - Centre for Resource
Management Studies, New Zealand
Fred Michel, Ph.D., Director, Institute of Environmental Sciences and
Associate Professor of Earth Sciences, Carleton University, Canada
Frank Milne, Ph.D., Professor, Dept. of Economics, Queen's University,
Asmunn Moene, Ph.D., former head of the Forecasting Centre,
Meteorological Institute, Norway
Alan Moran, Ph.D., Energy Economist, Director of the IPA's Deregulation
Nils-Axel Morner, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor of Paleogeophysics &
Geodynamics, Stockholm University, Sweden
Lubos Motl, Ph.D., physicist, former Harvard string theorist, Charles
University, Prague, Czech Republic
John Nicol, Ph.D., physicist, James Cook University, Australia
Mr. David Nowell, M.Sc., Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society,
former chairman of the NATO Meteorological Group, Ottawa, Canada
James J. O'Brien, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Meteorology and
Oceanography, Florida State University, U.S.
Cliff Ollier, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus (Geology), Research Fellow,
University of Western Australia
Garth W. Paltridge, Ph.D., atmospheric physicist, Emeritus Professor
and former Director of the Institute of Antarctic and Southern Ocean
Studies, University of Tasmania, Australia
R. Timothy Patterson, Ph.D., Professor, Dept. of Earth Sciences
(paleoclimatology), Carleton University, Canada
Al Pekarek, PhD, Associate Professor of Geology, Earth and Atmospheric
Sciences Dept., St. Cloud State University, Minnesota, U.S.
Ian Plimer, Ph.D., Professor of Geology, School of Earth and
Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide and Emeritus Professor
of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia
Brian Pratt, Ph.D., Professor of Geology, Sedimentology, University of
Harry N.A. Priem, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor of Planetary Geology and
Isotope Geophysics, Utrecht University; former director of the
Netherlands Institute for Isotope Geosciences
Alex Robson, Ph.D., Economics, Australian National University
Colonel F.P.M. Rombouts, Branch Chief - Safety, Quality and
Environment, Royal Netherlands Air Force
R.G. Roper, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Sciences, School
of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, U.S.
Arthur Rorsch, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor, Molecular Genetics, Leiden
University, The Netherlands
Rob Scagel, M.Sc., forest microclimate specialist, principal
consultant, Pacific Phytometric Consultants, B.C., Canada
Tom V. Segalstad, Ph.D., (Geology/Geochemistry), Head of the Geological
Museum and Associate Professor of Resource and Environmental Geology,
University of Oslo, Norway
Gary D. Sharp, Ph.D., Center for Climate/Ocean Resources Study,
Salinas, CA, U.S.
S. Fred Singer, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences,
University of Virginia and former director, U.S. Weather Satellite
L. Graham Smith, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Dept. of Geography,
University of Western Ontario, Canada
Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D., climatologist, Principal Research Scientist,
Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama, Huntsville, U.S.
Peter Stilbs, TeknD, Professor of Physical Chemistry, Research Leader,
School of Chemical Science and Engineering, KTH (Royal Institute of
Technology), Stockholm, Sweden
Hendrik Tennekes, Ph.D., former Director of Research, Royal Netherlands
Dick Thoenes, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor of Chemical Engineering,
Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands
Brian G Valentine, Ph.D., PE (Chem.), Technology Manager - Industrial
Energy Efficiency, Adjunct Associate Professor of Engineering Science,
University of Maryland at College Park; Dept of Energy, Washington, DC,
Gerrit J. van der Lingen, Ph.D., geologist and paleoclimatologist,
climate change consultant, Geoscience Research and Investigations, New
Len Walker, Ph.D., power engineering, Pict Energy, Melbourne, Australia
Edward J. Wegman, Bernard J. Dunn Professor, Department of Statistics
and Department Computational and Data Sciences, George Mason
University, Virginia, U.S.
Stephan Wilksch, Ph.D., Professor for Innovation and Technology
Management, Production Management and Logistics, University of
Technology and Economics Berlin, Germany
Boris Winterhalter, Ph.D., senior marine researcher (retired),
Geological Survey of Finland, former professor in marine geology,
University of Helsinki, Finland
David E. Wojick, Ph.D., P.Eng., UN IPCC Expert Reviewer, energy
consultant, Virginia, U.S.
Raphael Wust, Ph.D., Lecturer, Marine Geology/Sedimentology, James Cook
A. Zichichi, Ph.D., President of the World Federation of Scientists,
Geneva, Switzerland; Emeritus Professor of Advanced Physics, University
of Bologna, Italy.